Our approach builds on an established empirical foundation: a long-running, geographically detailed record of internet connectivity and performance, together with predictive models that are already used in KASPR’s intelligence and decision services.
The next scientific challenge is to move beyond modelling individual network indicators towards learning a coherent representation of how connectivity conditions evolve across locations, providers and time.
This involves understanding the information contained in the historical relationships between network conditions, the extent to which these relationships generalise across geographic and technological environments, and how external events influence the evolution of connectivity.
We are particularly interested in the distinction between regular variation, correlated disruptions and changes associated with identifiable external events. This distinction is important both for forecasting and for developing credible simulations of alternative network conditions.
A further objective is to link these models to decision-making. KASPR Sense already provides a practical foundation for incorporating network conditions into timing and planning decisions. Extending this towards more general decision support requires models that can characterise uncertainty and, where appropriate data are available, evaluate the consequences of alternative actions.
The research will be guided by empirical validation. We intend to benchmark new approaches against established forecasting methods, assess their performance on historical events and examine where additional model complexity produces meaningful improvements.
We also recognise the limits of externally observed data. Modelling the consequences of internal network interventions requires operational information that is not contained in KASPR’s measurements alone. Collaborations with network operators and technology partners will therefore be important for extending the scope of the model.
Our aim is to develop a scientifically grounded model of global connectivity that is useful not only for prediction, but also for understanding network dynamics and supporting decisions under uncertainty.